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What a stalled AI rollout actually costs, in plain pounds

I take one typical £50m business and run it through all four ways a rollout goes, with the pounds worked out in full. Straight answers for the CEO who has to face the board in the morning.

Case studies

One £50m business. The same £1.5m AI bet. Four very different endings.

I built one reference business and ran it through the four friction states, with the maths worked out in full each time. Three quietly drain it. One pays for itself.

  1. The Stewardship Dividend +£2.5mEBITDA Productive Friction Aligned and free to push back. That’s Productive Friction. The rollout goes live in 90 days, frees £1m of capacity, and lifts the top line to £55m. The only ending that pays. Read the case study
  2. All gas, no speed −£460kEBITDA The Deceleration Tax Always nearly ready, never live. A faster rival ships first and poaches £3m of revenue while the firm runs one more readiness workshop. Read the case study
  3. Unregulated Adoption −£630kprofit hit The Shadow AI Tax Your people use AI on the quiet, no protocol, no oversight, no alignment. 49% of workers admit it, and 51% have wired unmonitored tools straight into work systems. Every link is a liability. Read the case study
  4. Playing it safe −£200ka year The Hedging Tax Everyone agrees, nobody adopts. The £2m boost never arrives, the spend lands anyway, and dual-running becomes a permanent drag. Read the case study

From the blog

Notes on why rollouts stall, and what it’s costing

A new and growing set. Search the titles or filter by topic to find the question keeping you up.

1 article

  1. Real numbers How much is a stalled AI rollout really costing you? The honest answer is that most leaders have no idea, because the cost almost never arrives as a line you’d flag. Here is how to express it in financial terms. Gabriella Eberhardt · Jun 2026 · 3 min read